Stock Traders Blog

PPIP is Evil:
The government thinks the solution to end the recession is the PPIP program (Public Private Investment Program). I hardly know the details of the program until I read the following article from thestreet.com. More Leverage Won’t Solve Bank Mess. The more I understand the program the more upset I get. Look at the following details it is basically a program to shift the risk of the banks holding the toxic asset to taxpayers. It is indeed

“An example of banks trying to profit through financial engineering at taxpayer expense, because the government would subsidize the asset purchases.”

PPIP Details:

• Banks will remove troubled assets from their balance sheets and receive a value determined by a bid/ask negotiation process with investors bidding and the banks asking.
• The negotiated price will be paid from the following sources: 7.5% private investor, 7.5% government (taxpayer) funds, and 85% loan from the FDIC.
• The FDIC loan is non-recourse. If the assets ultimately prove to be worth less than 85% of purchase price, the 15% of investor funds are wiped out and the FDIC will own the assets.
• The FDIC, a government sponsored enterprise (GSE), will be bailed out by the government (taxpayer), if necessary.

The PPIP program should not be implemented without taxpayer’s approval because you can see that FDIC will become the trash can holding the toxic asset eventually and the government have to use taxpayer’s money to bail it out. I emphasize it needs taxpayer’s approval. I am hard working taxpayer for the pass 11 years and I still didn’t get the dame right to vote. That really makes me angry.

The logic behind the government’s PPIP program is that the banks will become more willing to lend once the toxic asset is removed from their books. Does that mean the government through the PPIP program encourages the banks to do the 100% finance based on stated income for home buyers again? Does it mean the government encourages people to buy 3 or 4 houses while in fact they only need one? Suppose the PPIP works and housing price is pushed upward over the next two years gradually to 2006 price level. The current toxic asset become very liquid and can be traded and change from one hand to another. Then what? Another mortgage crisis? Another trillions of new toxic asset created? It doesn’t need an MBA degree to know it doesn’t make sense

The Solutions:
Frankly I think the US economic cycle is a cycle of bubble creation. We have the housing bubble. Before that we have the internet bubble and before that we have the saving and loan bubble. We simply need to create the bubble somewhere else to draw people’s attention to it, to make them believe into it and make them act on it. Creating bubble in the same place is just not going to work because the memory of the public is longer then an economic cycle.

Where is the best place to create the bubble? I guess it could be green energy or it could be some innovating technology like the invention of television and telephone many years ago. The smart grid could be one. What if we can’t find a place to create a big enough bubble to expand the economy long enough? Well I think inflate the currency is the only solution. Warren Buffet said Well Fargo could earn its way through the recession. Why it can? Because Wells Fargo can borrow money at zero percent interest from the Fed and lend it out at 4 or 5 percent to you and me who want to buy a house. That has no difference then the Fed printing money and giving it to the banks. I think the Fed instead of giving money to the banks it should just give very one who want to buy a house the down payment. Why should the bank owners be benefited in the middle when the ultimate purpose is to help the home buyers? It just doesn’t make sense.

Now it became crystal clear where those strong buys and upgrades come about. Bank of America issue 800 million new shares at $10 after the market close today. I guess they dare not to announce the offering the same day as the upgrade otherwise is will too obvious. Too bad the housing data give the bank share a big blow. Otherwise BAC shares could be manipulated well above $13.

I was angry because the rule of the game is never fair for small investor like me. I felt being played and cheated almost ten thousand dollar by those market manipulators. I feel shame of the government and the banks. The whole stress test, the spin on Bank of America’s capital short fall, the strong buys and the upgrades on Wells Fargo and BOAC are totally scam only to entice investors’ money. And they are even spinning on repaying the TRAP will hurt taxpayer. That is bull shit.

I have learned a big lesson out of it. Out of the angry I shorted Bank of America 2000 shares after market at $11.19 and $11.32 and cover all of them it at $11. My balance went up about $500 more. But it is no comparison to my ten thousand dollar lost.

News has it that Citi Bond Sale Shows Strength

This is the first time the financial institution has sought financing away from the protection of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s Temporary Liquidity Guarantee program begun in November. Demand was strong, with orders exceeding $6 billion, according to one person familiar with the deal.

I don’t feel surprise to see any of the 19 banks participating the stress test are able to sell bond without FDIC’s protection simply because the Fed chairman mentioned in the public that none of the 19 banks are allowed to fail. Why would anyone need FDIC’s protection when the Feb is standing behind? At the same time the government said that only banks that are able to sell debt without FDIC’s protection are able to repay TRAP. With this contradiction I am not sure if this a good news for for Citi group and the banking sector. Basically any of 19 banks that don’t need to raise capital will be allowed to repay TRAP it is a matter of whether they want to do so. And the ones that do so will certain stand out of the crowd.