I mentioned in my previous post that Baidu’s September option pain was $300. I checked it again and the option pain was higher a little bit at $310 at the moment. What 
would be your guess if you predict Baidu’s price movement without looking at the option pain a couple weeks ago when Baidu was about $340? I would probably think it would go up instead of retreating. Obviously option pain can really tell something. It can tell how institutional traders see a particular stock. If option volume on an issue is large enough option pain on that issue may be able to tell how institutional traders see the market overall.
I checked INTC and BAC September and October option pain. They are trending downward. They seem to tell the bearish sentiment of the market should be extended into October. However Baidu’s Oct option pain is at $330 which is higher than September’s. I am not sure if you agree or not but I have already convinced that option pain is a very good leading indicator on the underlined issue or even the overall market.
Anyway I didn’t trade for a while. I was busy looking for a new job. I add 200 shares of CSKI at $13.09 and I sold 2 contract of Baidu Sep 290 Put at $3. I was thinking if Oct Baidu option pain is $330 I wouldn’t mind to have it at $290 in the mid of September. There is $20 difference or about 9% difference between $290 and Sep option pain. I thought it could be safe. But again who knows. We will see how it goes.
I haven’t update the stock traders blog for a while because I was busy. I took a look today and I found someone name CAP posted some really harsh comments. I deleted most of them. Sorry about that CAP! I hope it is not because CAP 
followed some of my trades and lost money on them. The information on my blog can not serve as investment or trading advice by any means.
I was wrong on many of my trading positions taken lately. Especially the put position on Baidu. I sold one contract of Baidu Put and I am still holding it. As I mentioned before Baidu likes to follow its home market, the Chinese stock market. At this time PST 1:47 AM 2008-08-19 the Chinese stock market dropped some 5%. Seems to me the US market will be ugly when it open later today. In fact US future already dropped almost 100 points. If Baidu drop 5% today it will be below $320, the strike price of my Puts. There is a very high chance that I will lost money on the Puts. I will know this weekend. I added another stock to my portfolio though. That is Monlia Healthcare(MOH). I bought it at $19.95, 100 shares. And I am losing money on that again. CAP said I almost lost money on every trades and can’t believe I am holding an MBA. That’s almost true.
Indeed I wasted a lot money getting my MBA. If I didn’t take it I would have saved a lot of tuition. If I didn’t take it I wouldn’t trade stocks and I wouldn’t lost $70K. Do I regret taking it? I don’t think so. I might have gain something not in monetary terms while I lost this money. At least I felt OK that I still survive after this kind of lost.
Once a while I have this crazy thoughts. I did not have too much crazy act though. Evey time I act crazy I got burned. I mentioned I ever short 3000 
shares of Well Fargo using margin capital almost 2 times of what I had in my account. Today I had a crazy thought again. I thought about using all the cash in my account selling Baidu August 320 Put. I really don’t think that Baidu will go back to $320 a share by August 22nd. If it does I believe it will create a buying opportunity. That is why I want to sell Baidu August 320 Put. At the end I only sold 1 contract for $420. I ever mentioned that selling put is a strategy to earning more than CDs rates if you have cash sitting idl. I still believe so. But we’ve got to be very careful picking the stock and option strike price when doing that.
After I sold Baidu put I saw my account requires me to remain $6,374 of cash. So if I want to be all in the maximum number of contract I can sell is 4 only. 4*420 = $1680. So if everything works out the all in strategy can net me $1680 by August 22nd. It looks like Baidu is not going back to $320 given the current market sentiment. But my experience told me it is very hard to predict. Market sentiment can have 180 degree change over night triggered by a single story. So I dare not to be all in. Anyhow I am holding two positions now. 500 shares of Fig (Fortrest investment group) and 1 contract of short Baid Put. The picture shows my balance.
As to Fortrest investment group. I feel it will reach 6 if the market remain positive. Blackstone drop a lot today and it seem to me it will go up tomorrow and so will Fortrest investment group. let’s see what happen tomorrow.
Yesterday I thought about shorting Baidu at $318. I am glad I didn’t do so. Baidu is holding up above that price and didn’t follow Google dropping. I guess traders are waiting for its earning report on Jul 23rd.
I traded again today I was tire of watching. And I lost again. I short Bank of America at $13.30. It went up to $13.47 after that. I covered it when it fell back to $13.33. It kept falling after I covered it. I shorted it because its earning was not a good one basically. It reported profit only because the big gain on selling stake in China Construction Bank. The gain was more than 5 billions instead of 2 billions that I guessed in this post “Bank of America Earning Forecast and Financial Statement Analysis”. If the gain was 2 billions then Bank of America will show 1 billion lost as I was expecting.
Seems to me Bank of America will report no profit or will report loss for the coming quarters. I kind of think Bank of America will keep falling starting from here. But again I don’t trust my judgment.
Here is the trade today and balance.
 Transaction 2009/07/17 |
 Account Balance 2009/07/17 |
Account Balance Changes: -$50.33
I thought about a few trades yesterday and today but as I said in my previous post I lost confidence about my judgment lately so I didn’t make the moves. It turned out that if I made the move I would make good profit. I thought about shorting 2000 shares of Bank of America yesterday after market close at $13.40 but I didn’t do it. I thought about buying 2000 shares of BAC this morning when it dropped to 13.04 a couple times but I didn’t do it.
Now I am thinking about shorting 100 shares of Baidu at $318. As you see Google dropped $14 dollars after market close. It is like selling on the earning report. Baidu usually follow Google or the Chinese market. So I kind of think Baidu will drop and will drop $10 at some point tomorrow. I am still thinking about the move. I will have the chance to short it till 5:00PM
I post the same question on Baidu board. http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_B/threadview?m=tm&bn=22855&tid=273994&mid=273994&tof=6&frt=2. Seems like no one really have the same feel. I let go that thought again.,
Like I felt yesterday Intel’s result dragged up the market. I lost on the Baidu put and I sold them. I traded on GCI (GANNETT CO INC) today. I noticed this stock in my trading tool’s news window. I felt this company was kind of under valued even at today’s closing price but I didn’t follow this company for long. It reported 2nd quarter profit of $0.46 a share and its stock price was at $4.50 at close. Its forward P/E is quite low. I have no confidence on my own judgment any more so I am not going to keep it. I feel I just need a break. After more than a month of hard work I am still at loss. So I may not be trading for the rest of the week.
 Transaction 2009/07/15 |
 Account Balance 2009/07/15 |
Account Balance Changes: -$260.59
I covered my short position on Bank of America and brought some Baidu Jul 290 puts. I felt I took the wrong side. I felt the market turn bullish after Intel report better than expected earning. Technology stocks may go up tomorrow and so will Baidu. Baidu likes to follow Google or the Chinese stock market as far as my observation goes. Looks like it is not going to go down either way. Google will report earning on 16th. My put option will expire on 17th. Looks like the chance I make profit on this put is low.
 Tansaction 2009/07/14 |
 Account Balance 2009/07/14 |
Account Balance Changes: +$18.72
Yesterday I kept my 800 shares of PCX (patriot coal) in hope that it would rebound when oil price rebound. In early today there was report that oil price was held stead above $60 a barrel and PCX was up at around $5.45 not long after market open. The DOW was up 40 some points at the time. I thought that was it and the rebound of PCX was disappointed to me. I was eager to find a chance to sell PCX. I sold it at $5.47 early in the morning. Looked at how it closes. PCX was at $5.63 and the Dow was only up 5 points. So once again don’t under estimate the tie between oil price and energy stocks. Energy stock can be affected by oil price more then by the general market. So this is a bad move I made today. I brought these 800 shares at $5.76 a couple days ago.
I did make a good move. I bought some Bidu (Baidu) puts and sold them later net about $120. So my total gain today is about $250. Not a lot but my account is back above my initial capital of $30,000. I have learned to be happy with small gains and I love this thinking “Go slow. Preserve capital. Learn the fundamentals. Achieve consistency”
 Account Balance 2009/07/09 |
 Stock Trades 2009/07/09 |
I feel the overall sentiment of the market is still bearish. The market is waiting to see how the financial sector was doing in second quarter and is very cautionary. I bet the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index tomorrow will not have a good reading since unemployment rate is still going high. And I feel good holding only cash.
Account Balance Changes: +$259.67
In a previous post that I discussed whether technical analysis worked in stock trading I mentioned that Baidu’s price was going up simply because its price target was raised by Goldman Sachs. Looking at Baidu’s price now it stands at $304. If I brought its shares at that time I should have made good profit buy now. I didn’t buy it because Baidu share was too expensive and I can not follow my guidelines if I trade Baidu’s share and it happened that I was considering whether I was wrong not following guidelines. Because of the hesitation I missed an obvious earning opportunity.
Goldman Sachs was the major underwriter helping Baidu go public five years ago. Its opinion has been a major driving force behind the ups and downs of this stock. Next earning will be big because it is a good chance for the analyst to play a big game. Baidu’s valuation at this level is supper high compare to many other stocks. If Baidu miss analyst expectation it can trigger a streak of downgrades and Baidu’s price could be pushed back to $220 level. If they beat expectation the stock may go up a bit say 10% to around $330 and still analyst other than Goldman Sachs will downgrade it using the excuse of high evaluation. I am thinking may be I should watch out for any shorting opportunity after the next earning report.
There is still a long way to go though.
I have know for long that the world financial markets tend to echoing each other and ADR issues have the tendency following its home market performance but I hardly pay attention how much the world market went up yesterday.
I just found out that China and Hong Kong index went up almost 4% yesterday. Japan went up 1.63%. Most Europe market went up 3% yesterday. For Baidu which is a high beta stock usually the percentage it went up or down will be bigger then the index. In fact its change is usually two times of the Nasdaq or its home market.
So I don’t understand why I took a short position this morning when the market was up only 100 point (DIJ). That was 1.3% only. And I don’t understand why I took the short position on Bidu when it was up only $9 which is 3.5%.
First I was wrong on taking short position. Second I was wrong on taking the short position before the market running out of its potential today. Third I was wrong on taking the short position on Bidu and fourth I was wrong on breaking two of my guidelines. I didn’t think twice the probability of a better entry point. I have doubled my initial bet of on a trading day.
What a messy day. Should I take lost right now?
